Some Trendy Thoughts

Planning focuses marketing strategy. That strategy guides marketing implementation. That implementation can make the sales effort more effective. Therefore, the degree of a financial organization’s success can often be traced to the effectiveness of its marketing planning process.

Looking to the Future

Planning is the exercise of analyzing the myriad of factors that an organization will face and then using informed judgments to determine the best course for future action. In essence, effective planning is the ability to make decisions not based on understanding things as they were or as they are, but based on understanding what will be. Insightful decisions require assessment of the future influences that are going to affect corporate affairs.

Wayne Gretzky said it well. When asked why he was such a great hockey player, Gretzky said, “I don’t go where the puck is, I go where it is going to be.” In business that translates to identifying trends that will affect your business and making decisions ahead of the curve.

Alvin Toffler was one of the first to understand that success lies in anticipating trends, rather that following them. His groundbreaking 1970 work, Future Shock—succeeded by The Third Wave (1980) and Power Shift (1990)—spawned a generation of “futurologists” who presented intriguing ideas about future trends and how to deal with them. Another noteworthy futurologist, John Naisbitt, gained comparable recognition with his book Megatrends (1982) which identified ten critical trends that would distinguish the burgeoning information society from the prior industrial one. Contemporary futurologists continue to refine and promote their field. Recent noteworthy publications include: Being Digital (1995) in which Nicholas Negroponte explores the future of communications; The Art of the Long View (1991) in which Peter Schwartz demonstrates how scenario planning can help us discover the shape of unfolding future reality; and The Tipping Point (2000) in which Malcolm Gladwell shows how trends break into the mainstream.

What the futurologists have proven is that there is truly an art and science to trend analysis. They have shown the value of dismantling a trend to explore its implications; its importance; its applications; and, its eminence. In a time of “hyper change” with incredibly rapid shifts in marketplace needs and wants, winning financial organizations will be those who embrace change and seek out opportunities (rather than excuses) as a key asset in achieving success. That means honing their ability to identify and act on relevant trends.

Leveraging Emerging Trends

Since the influence of an emerging trend grows as it gathers momentum, the greatest opportunities for competitive advantage occur when a trend is still in its nascent stage. Therefore, futurologists carefully monitor many areas—e.g., economic, geopolitical, technological, business, workplace, consumer, investor, and societal—for early indications of emerging trends and their attendant opportunities. Their vigilance and insight are rewarded when they are able to connect the dots and reap the rewards of early participation in an emerging trend.

At the beginning of the millennium, the government published the following list of the top ten inventions and discoveries of the Modern Times:

Those who saw the early implications of any of these major influences and capitalized on the resulting opportunities were liberally rewarded. However, from examining this list, a fact about trend identification becomes evident. Megatrends (e.g. the age wave, the information revolution, global warming, etc.) are not where to focus for practical business applications. Smaller scale trends produce more useful insights to identify where corporate opportunities can be had. Insights to specific trends and their potential influences are the fodder on which effective strategy can be built.

Those looking for viable small scale trends should, however, be careful not to fall victim to fads. Webster defines a fad as “a practice or interest that is taken up with great enthusiasm for a brief period of time.” Fads are short term trends that are almost always impossible to predict because they generally have no underlying logic. Hula hoops, many dot coms, chia pets, assorted financial products, and pet rocks offer examples. The only way to successfully participate in a fad is to follow the accounting principle of FIFO—i.e., get in early, get out early and don’t get stuck.

The bottom line is that the development of breakthrough financial services business strategies requires two equally important elements. The first is a refined marketing planning process that facilitates the identification of emerging trends and analyzes their implications for your business. The second is the discipline and courage of leadership to change priorities as the opportunities afforded by relevant trends are recognized. Together, they can make for a much richer organization.